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Climate Change Will Reduce the Durability of EV Batteries Globally

CSS Publication Number
CSS24-63
Full Publication Date
December 13, 2024
Abstract

Electric vehicle battery (EVB) durability is critical for enabling affordable decarbonization of the transportation sector. However, the rising global temperatures pose great risks to battery lifespan and effectiveness. This study aims to understand how climate change affects the durability of EVB by examining the accelerated degradation processes under higher temperatures and the resultant geographic distribution in battery lifetime.

 

Existing estimations of EVB lifetime and regulatory frameworks for the durability of EVB do not adequately address EVB durability under a warming climate. Given the process of EV design, until end-life could last for decades, it's important to estimate the climate condition the EV will endure rather than relying on historical climate data as the test condition.

 

We use a driving dynamic model of the Tesla Model 3 combined with three driving and charging behaviors to represent typical EVB conditions. Batteries reaching end-of-life after a 30% capacity reduction are considered. We utilize a semi-empirical, physical-chemical degradation model integrated with hourly temperature data and climate projections from 4 CMIP6 global climate models with ERA5-assisted bias-correction from the current period (2018-2024) to the future period (2058-2064), This research conducts a geographically explicit analysis for EVB, with 1°×1° spatial resolution for global land locations.

 

Our results show that climate change could reduce EV battery lifetime by 10-30% globally, with significant geographical heterogeneity. Notably, Southeast Asia, the Eastern United States, the Mediterranean, and Central Asia are identified as particularly vulnerable to these changes, which could have significant cost implications for battery replacement.

 

The study highlights the necessity for a more dynamic regulatory approach considering the geographic and climatic variations impacting EV battery life. The ongoing extension, to be presented at the conference, will include more diverse driving behaviors, charging profiles, and a detailed battery management systems model to fully assess our current findings' economic and environmental implications. This finding could help guide a proactive adaptation of electric vehicle design under a changing climate.

Research Areas
Energy Systems
Publication Type
Conference Proceeding
Full Citation

Wu, Haochi, and Michael Craig. "Climate Change Will Reduce the Durability of EV Batteries Globally." AGU24 (2024). CSS24-63