Research Publications

Electric vehicles (EVs) are key to transportation decarbonization, yet their battery performance and longevity are vulnerable to temperature extremes, which will be affected by climate change. Battery technology advancements moderate this vulnerability, a dynamic rarely captured in technology assessments under future climates. Here we show that technological advancements have largely mitigated battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. We combine bottom-up EV simulation and battery degradation models with high-resolution downscaled climate data, capturing warming and variability, for 300 global cities. Under 2 °C warming, old (2010–2018) batteries would experience lifetime declines of 8% (average) and 30% (maximum), whereas new batteries (2019–2023) would experience lifetime declines of 3% (average) and 10% (maximum). New batteries also mitigate regional inequities in battery lifetime reductions driven by climate change. Increasing cell temperature primarily drives lifetime declines. Our findings emphasize climate adaptation co-benefits from technological advancement and increasing thermal resiliency of emerging battery technologies.