Projects

The purpose of this project is to identify locations for forest preservation and expansion to foster regional resilience in the face of ongoing urbanization processes and climate change in Southeast Michigan. With support from McIntire-Stennis (Phase I: 2018 2020), we are completing a detailed land use change analysis— 1m spatial resolution—for the seven counties of Southeast Michigan over a thirty-year period (1985- 2015). Our initial results reveal that urban development, 70% of which is low-density single-family housing sprawl, has fragmented the region’s forests and led to significant losses of farmland (Figure 1). We are requesting funds for Phase II (2020-2022), which will identify key forest green infrastructure (GI) conservation and expansion hotspots based on prospective 2050 scenarios for the region. Spatially explicit land use scenarios incorporate existing socio-economic and demographic forecasts with an analysis of forest impacts in the context of plausible climatic trajectories for Southeast Michigan. These will be combined through a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) framework to identify robust and contingent areas for forest preservation and expansion —which our SEMCOG collaborators have already indicated to us would be a valuable output to inform their sub-regional work. The overall objective is to advance the engaged science necessary to make sound decisions about where and how best to maintain existing and strategically expand forests as part of a robust climate-resilient strategy. For Phase II, we will continue to develop a formal partnership with the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) to ensure the project has real world impact (see partner letter). SEMCOG plans to use the result to guide their region-wide planning strategies.