This study aims to develop life cycle based models to elucidate the environmental impacts of CAV fleets (e.g., energy demand, GHG emission, and criteria air emissions). This study will evaluate the CAV impacts on local transportation systems and requires significant modeling complexity.
1) Establish baseline fleet in appropriate contexts such as large metropolitan areas and analyze demand. The baseline fleet captures critical features including the array of powertrain, fuels and vehicle segments available currently. CAV deployment scenarios will need to consider both private and share use applications in major automotive markets including China, US, and/or EU.
2) Establish travel models to simulate traveler behavior changes in response to CAVs. CAVs are expected to have different travel patterns as users may be less inclined to combine trips (known as “trip chaining”) when vehicles can be dispatched to pick-up passengers (especially members of the same household) or transport goods without the necessity of a minimize drivers’ drive time. A fleet level analysis of how travel behavior and vehicle use might change with CAVs under different conditions will be conducted.
3) Develop an integrated life cycle analysis model to analyze energy and environmental impacts of CAV deployment, in response to various deployment patterns/strategies. A life cycle approach includes impact from vehicle use, vehicle production, fuel production and end-of-life treatment. Comprehensive uncertainty analysis is required for critical parameters, including changes in travel demand, fuel efficiency, fleet turnover, etc.
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